ANALYSIS: Asians shift allegiances

Both Labour and Conservatives will need to re-think how to win back voters

• BARNIE CHOUDHURY
• 11 July, 2024

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By: BARNIE CHOUDHURY

LOOK closely at last Thursday’s (4) general election results, and you’ll have noticed a political tremor when it came to south Asian voters.

A tremor which could become an earthquake at the next general election, and all the mainstream parties should think the unthinkable. These polls have shown that even when you’re predicted to have a landslide, and even when you win by a landslide, be prepared for south Asians to spoil your party.

For months, I’ve been telling anyone who’ll listen that we ignore the Muslim vote at our peril. Gaza was going to make a substantial difference to these polls. Few listened. They told me that the same thing happened in 2005, when the feared backlash against Tony Blair’s New Labour government came to nought. But this was different, and all the signs were there.

First, the Conservatives failed to call for an immediate ceasefire and condemn Israel for what many Muslim countries called a genocide. Remember South Africa took Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) – the top court in the United Nations – over that very issue.

Second, the Labour Party prevaricated and eventually called for an immediate “humanitarian” ceasefire on the condition that Israel feels secure. Dozens of Labour councillors resigned, and 10 Labour frontbenchers quit so they could vote for a ceasefire. This left many Muslim voters realising they had no option but to fight against both parties. More on how that affected results later.

History lesson

A quick history lesson. In the 1960s south Asians, Africans and Caribbeans who were part of the British empire were welcomed with open arms to fill those jobs none of the indigenous population would do. We forget that our parents and grandparents were British citizens by virtue of our colonial past. Labour and the trades union movement recruited us with promises of fraternity and equality. We delivered bloc votes and, they, in all honesty, promised jam tomorrow. Speak to anyone who lived through the first waves of mass immigration, and you’ll hear stories of racism and little protection.

It wasn’t until the 1990s that we started seeing a shift, where south Asians started to leave Labour and vote for the Tories. In the 2000s more and more, particularly British-Indians, crossed the political aisle. Today, thanks to the Conservative Party, we’ve had our first south Asian prime minister, chancellor, home secretary, business secretary, health secretary and culture secretary.

But in every general election, there’s always an unexpected story. For me, 2024 is the untold story of the independents rather than the rise of Reform UK. Undoubtedly, the biggest Labour beast to fall was Jonathan Ashworth in Leicester South. Sources have told me that they urged Ashworth to resign his front bench position to win over the Muslim vote. His refusal may have cost him because the eventual winner, Shockat Adam, won by a mere 979 votes, and declared “this is for Gaza” in his victory speech. Ashworth, sources told me, became complacent, taking the south Asian vote for granted.

Casualties

Another casualty was veteran Muslim Labour MP for Birmingham Perry Barr, Khalid Mahmood, who lost to the independent, Ayoub Khan, by 507 votes. Once again, the reason was Gaza. It was a similar story in Blackburn, where the independent candidate, Adnan Hussain, tapped into local people’s anger over the war in the Middle East to win in a previously safe Labour seat.

In Dewsbury and Batley, a new seat, Iqbal Mohamed, won by a massive 6,934 votes. Mohamed left Labour because of his former party’s stance on Gaza. We must remember Batley and Spen was a Labour seat, and the Muslim vote was crucial there. And two months ago, Labour lost control of Kirklees Council, which is in the new constituency, and elected five independent councillors.

Up and down the country we have seen Labour shedding votes and coming close to losing. In Ilford North, Muslim voters punished Labour’s health secretary, Wes Streeting, for his stance on Gaza. In October 2023, he told LBC that “sometimes you need quiet diplomacy, not megaphone diplomacy”. By the time Labour changed its position, it was probably too late to win back a core, and once loyal, constituency. Voters slashed his 9,000 majority to 528. You must wonder whether Streeting forgot that almost 44 per cent of Ilford are south Asian, and 30 per cent of the area are Muslim.

Look closely, and the warning signs were there, but you must wonder too whether Labour was either tone deaf or felt it could ignore its core minority vote. To make matters worse, Sir Keir Starmer made an enormous gaffe when he wrongly demonised Bangladeshis as illegal immigrants. It must have been a party line because other MPs, including Ashworth, parroted the same myth. For the record, Home Office figures show that Iran, Albania, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria head the nations who arrive on small boats.

Muslim backlash

I covered election night for the BBC, and I was in Luton. Both Labour incumbents resigned their shadow cabinet positions in November 2023, so they could vote for a ceasefire, defying the party line. Lest we forget, one in three in the town is Muslim. Even so, supporters of independent Muslim candidates inside the hall barracked them during their acceptance speeches. Afterwards both returning MPs told me that they knew they had to rebuild trust among all communities.

But before we focus fully on the Muslim vote, consider Harrow East. Sources have told Eastern Eye that this was a target Labour seat, and it put in resources trying to unseat incumbent, Bob Blackman. But here’s the thing, 46 per cent of this constituency are south Asian, mainly Indian and predominantly Hindus. Blackman knows this, and more importantly, he makes sure his constituents know that he knows and values the largest minority group. His constituents value that he’s one of the few politicians who actively demonstrates that they don’t take their south Asian communities for granted.

The final twist in this election is the number of south Asians who ran for Reform UK. It will seem bizarre that those with immigrant heritage are themselves anti-immigrant. We can’t be surprised. This is history repeating itself and let me explain why. In my view, they show the changing face of Britain. South Asian communities are incredibly aspirational, often holding down three jobs to make sure their children can go to private school and top universities. We’re now at a stage in our island’s history where they, like previous immigrant communities, consider themselves more British than the British.

Think back to the Goodness Gracious Me parody of the Coopers and Robinsons. They have forgotten the value of immigrants who work back-breaking hours in back-breaking jobs that indigenous folk won’t do. They’ve bought into the myth that they belong to that exclusive club called Britons. I’ll be accused of being unpatriotic, but for clarity, I’m fiercely proud to be British, and had things turned out differently I would have joined the armed forces as an officer. No, the difference is that I refuse to betray or forget my immigrant roots. Like millions of others, we have added and contributed to our island’s glorious contemporary history.

Going it alone

So, what does this all mean? As I said in my BBC Radio 4 documentaries, south Asians no longer have a natural political home because they feel parties to those they were once loyal take them for granted. We are seeing an atomisation of a once politically homogenous block, who are now voting along religious and communal lines. But more than that, what this election shows is that they are no longer afraid to go it alone and take on the parties which they feel have taken their loyalty for granted. They have shown that not only can they voice their concerns, but they can also get their voices heard in the mother of all parliaments. To coin a cliché, the genie is out of the bottle.

Labour has five years to put things right. But once again the new prime minister has made an error of judgement. An ITV reporter asked Sir Keir Starmer on Monday (8), on a visit to Wales, about the Muslim vote and what he was going to do to repair relations. The PM refused to answer. Once again, I suspect, other non-Muslim Labour MPs will follow his example, and this will harm chances of healing a serious rift. Already one Muslim MP has criticised her leader.

The Conservatives, well, they may have produced the first brown prime minister, but it was thanks only to their MPs. Their grassroot members didn’t want an ethnic leader at the helm, never mind lead the country, and I suspect we’ll see that played out in their latest pyscho-drama, the vote for their new leader. Only if they truly accept the success of our multicultural island story, the positivity of immigrants who make institutions like the NHS a triumph, will Britain, like France, truly defeat the rampant right-wing rhetoric that is Reform UK.