- A YouGov projection puts the Tories second on 130 seats, ahead of Reform on 123.
- Reform's support slips amid a police investigation and a sleaze probe over a £5 million gift to Farage.
- Analysts call it a "very small revival" driven by Reform's fall rather than Tory gains.
- A split right-wing vote could help Labour, now led by Andy Burnham, hold key seats.
THE CONSERVATIVES have overtaken Reform UK in a new seat projection, reversing a year in which Nigel Farage's party appeared on course to replace them as the main force on the political right.
A recent YouGov poll of some 17,000 Britons projects that the Tories would win 130 seats if an election were held today, ahead of Reform on 123.
In 2025, Reform held large poll leads, and one survey suggested the Conservatives could be reduced to just 45 MPs.
The turnaround comes as Reform faces a police investigation into allegations of illegal donations and a parliamentary sleaze probe into a £5 million gift to Farage. Reform and Farage deny wrongdoing.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch used her opening speech to the party's annual conference in Birmingham on Sunday to strike a confident note.
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"When we win the next election – and we will – we are going to need to hit the ground running," she said, to applause.
Why Reform is stumbling
Alongside the donations inquiries, Reform is under pressure from Restore Britain, a party further to the right that has received the backing of US tech billionaire Elon Musk.
Farage's personal standing has also fallen. In September, YouGov said his net favourability rating had dropped 14 points in the past year, while Badenoch's had risen 20 points, although both remain negative overall.
"Their ratings have improved lately but mainly because Reform's have begun to drop," Tim Bale, a political scientist and expert on right-wing politics in Britain, told AFP.
"It's too early to talk about a 'Kemi-naissance' although the Tories and their allies in the media are keen to create some momentum."
A modest Tory recovery
The Conservatives have had some recent successes. They made gains in London at local elections in May, although Reform and the Greens were the biggest winners overall, and they won a parliamentary by-election in June.
"Reports of the death of the Conservative Party now look premature," Bale said.
But David Jeffery, a senior lecturer in British politics at the University of Liverpool, said the recovery should not be overstated.
"It's a very small revival that the Conservatives are enjoying," he told AFP.
Anas Sarwar says Reform's divisive politics threatens his sons' sense of belonging
"They're doing better than they've done in the last year and a half. But they're still about four points behind ... [the 24 per cent vote share] they had at the [2024] general election," he said.
What the numbers mean for the next election
Labour would win. The same YouGov projection puts Labour, now led by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, in first place. The contest between the Tories and Reform is for second.
The Tories are barely ahead of where they started. Their projected 130 seats compare with the 121 they won in July 2024, the party's worst general election defeat.
Reform would still make huge gains. Its projected 123 seats would be a sharp rise from the eight it holds now.
A split right helps Labour. Bale said a stronger Conservative Party at Reform's expense "would split the right-wing vote in a whole bunch of constituencies that Labour would then be able to hold on to".
A Tory-Reform deal is ruled out for now, but not for ever. Badenoch, 46, has ruled out a pact with Reform, which takes a tougher line on immigration and climate change and now includes former Conservative ministers Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman. But Bale said a deal could follow the election, which Burnham says will be in 2029, if it allowed the parties to form a coalition or minority government.
"When I said I was going to renew the Conservative Party, I meant it," Badenoch said in her speech.
How the Tories got here
Founded in the 1830s, the Conservative Party produced figures such as Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher, and has won more general elections and produced more prime ministers than any other modern UK party.
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It governed from 1979 to 1997 and from 2010 to 2024.
Its 2024 defeat, when Labour under Keir Starmer reduced it to 121 MPs in the 650-seat House of Commons, followed years of turmoil after the 2016 Brexit referendum.
That period included Boris Johnson's scandal-hit premiership and the fallout from Liz Truss's budget.
(With inputs from agencies)
