Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Polls predict record Conservative defeat in July 4 election

YouGov had the Conservatives at 108 seats and the Liberal Democrats at 67, while Savanta predicted the Conservatives would take 53 seats and the Liberal Democrats 50.

Polls predict record Conservative defeat in July 4 election

THREE opinion polls on Wednesday predicted a significant defeat for the Conservatives in the July 4 election, forecasting a large majority for the Labour Party after 14 years in opposition.

Polling by YouGov showed Keir Starmer's Labour on track to win 425 parliamentary seats in Britain's 650-seat House of Commons, the most in its history. Savanta predicted 516 seats for Labour, and More in Common gave it 406.


YouGov had the Conservatives at 108 seats and the Liberal Democrats at 67, while Savanta predicted the Conservatives would take 53 seats and the Liberal Democrats 50. More in Common forecast 155 and 49 seats respectively.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said their projection put Labour on course "for a historic majority."

The three polls used multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) surveys, which predict results in every voting district using variables like age, gender, and education. This method successfully predicted the 2017 British election result.

The new polls align with previous surveys predicting a Labour victory but suggest the Conservatives' defeat could be worse than earlier projections. YouGov's forecast of 108 seats for the Conservatives was about 32 lower than its previous poll two weeks earlier.

Both Savanta and YouGov predicted that the Conservatives could be left with the lowest number of seats in their nearly 200-year history.

Prime minister Rishi Sunak, who last week pledged to cut 17 billion pounds of taxes for working people if re-elected, has not turned the polls around in a campaign with several missteps. His task is complicated by the return of prominent Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, whose Reform UK party threatens to split the right-of-centre vote.

Britain's first-past-the-post electoral system means Reform could get millions of votes without winning any individual seats. YouGov predicted Reform would win five seats and Savanta none. More in Common did not provide a figure for Reform.

The Savanta poll, published by the Telegraph, indicated Sunak could lose his own parliamentary seat in northern England, a once-safe Conservative constituency, with the contest too close to call.

Sunak has acknowledged public frustration with him and his party after more than a decade in power, marked by political turmoil and scandal. All three surveys projected several senior government ministers, including finance minister Jeremy Hunt, were likely to lose their seats.

Most opinion polls currently place Keir Starmer's Labour about 20 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives in the national vote share. Recent polls also present a bleak outlook for Sunak, with one predicting "electoral extinction" for the Conservatives.

(Agencies)

More For You

Sri Lanka forms committee to address UK sanctions
Anura Kumara Dissanayake

Sri Lanka forms committee to address UK sanctions

THE Sri Lanka government on Wednesday (2) formed a committee to recommend measures regarding the UK's decision to impose sanctions on three former military commanders who led the campaign that crushed the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009.

Health minister Nalinda Jayatissa told reporters that foreign minister Vijitha Herath, justice minister Harshana Nanayakkara and deputy minister of defence Aruna Jayasekara would comprise the committee that would consult experts for the purpose.

Keep ReadingShow less
Gujarat-blast-ANI

The blast caused the factory’s concrete roof to collapse, scattering debris and body parts across the area, officials confirmed. (Photo: ANI)

ANI

Death toll rises to 21 in Gujarat firework factory explosion

AN EXPLOSION at an illegal firecracker factory in Gujarat's Deesa town killed 21 people and injured several others on Tuesday, officials said.

The blast caused the factory’s concrete roof to collapse, scattering debris and body parts across the area, officials confirmed.

Keep ReadingShow less
Child benefit payments set to rise for UK families

Child benefit, normally paid every four weeks directly into bank accounts, has undergone significant changes in recent months (Photo: Getty Images)

Child benefit payments set to rise for UK families

MILLIONS of British families are set to receive a financial boost as child benefit payments increase from April 7, according to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC).

From next week, parents will receive £26.05 per week for the eldest or only child, amounting to £1,354.60 annually - up from the current rate of £25.60. For each additional child, payments will rise to £17.25 weekly, totalling £897 per year - an increase from the present £16.95 rate. This represents a 1.7 per cent increase across all payment categories.

Keep ReadingShow less
Anant Ambani Walks 140 Km in Spiritual Tribute on 30th Birthday

Anant’s padyatra is a reflection of the larger cultural fabric of India

Getty

Anant Ambani embarks on a 140-kilometer spiritual journey on foot to celebrate 30th birthday

Anant Ambani, a director of Reliance Industries Limited and a prominent figure in Indian industry, has chosen a unique and spiritual way to mark his 30th birthday. As part of his celebrations, he is currently undertaking a padyatra—a traditional pilgrimage on foot—from Jamnagar to Dwarka, covering a distance of approximately 140 kilometres. The journey reflects his devotion to Lord Dwarkadhish, the presiding deity of the Dwarkadhish Temple in the city of Dwarka.

Anant began his journey from his family’s residence in Moti Khavdi, Jamnagar, and has been progressing steadily for the past five days. Walking an estimated 10-12 kilometres each night, he travels under the protection of Z+ security and local police, ensuring his safety during this significant journey. The padyatra is expected to take between seven to nine days in total, with plans to conclude at the Dwarkadhish Temple in time for his birthday on April 10.

Keep ReadingShow less
New TB action plan proposed as cases surge

Government urged experts to come forward to help draw up a new five-year TB action plan. (Photo: Getty Images)

New TB action plan proposed as cases surge

BRITAIN on Wednesday (2) urged health experts and sufferers of tuberculosis (TB) to come forward to help draw up a new five-year action plan as it deals with record rises in the disease.

In 2023, England recorded its largest annual increase (11 per cent) in cases since enhanced surveillance began in 2000.

Keep ReadingShow less