Covid-19 crisis to sink global economy in 2020; India's GDP to shrink 4.5 per cent, says IMF

KEY emerging market economies are taking a severe hit to GDP amid the coronavirus pandemic, with India seeing the first contraction in decades, the IMF said.

The updated World Economic Outlook shows India's GDP will fall 4.5 per cent this year, far worse than expected in April just after the pandemic first took hold outside of China.

Mexico will see a double digit decline of 10.5 per cent while Brazil just misses that mark with a drop of 9.1 per cent.

Argentina is projected to fall 9.9 per cent, with the country already in the middle of a massive debt crunch on top of the health and economic crises after once again defaulting on its foreign obligations.

During the global financial crisis in 2009, these emerging markets, along with China, were booming, supporting the global economy even as advanced nations faced severe recessions.

Meanwhile, South Africa's GDP is seen dropping 8.0 per cent, while oil-producer Nigeria falls 5.4, the IMF said.

According to IMF, this is a "crisis like no other". The world GDP will sink 4.9 per cent this year and wiping out $12 trillion over two years, the IMF said.

Worldwide business shutdowns destroyed hundreds of millions of jobs, and major economies in Europe face double-digit collapses.

The prospects for recovery post-pandemic -- like the forecasts themselves -- are steeped in "pervasive uncertainty" given the unpredictable path of the virus, the global agency said.

"The Covid-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast," the fund warned.

While businesses are reopening in many countries and China has seen a bigger rebound in activity than expected, a second wave of viral infections threatens the outlook, the report said.

World GDP is expected to rebound by just 5.4 per cent in 2021, and only if all goes well, the IMF warned.

Poor most vulnerable

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said under current forecasts, the crisis will destroy $12 trillion over two years, and cautioned, "we are not out of the woods."

"Substantial joint support from fiscal and monetary policy must continue for now," Gopinath said in a blog post.

The downturn is particularly damaging for low-income countries and households, and threatens to endanger the progress made on reducing extreme poverty, the Washington-based crisis lender said in its report.

The fund made drastic downward revisions to most of the April forecasts made in the early days of the pandemic, and IMF economists fear the coronavirus will leave lasting scars on employment, businesses and trade.

Hanging over the predictions is the bill for massive government stimulus plans, which were fueled by extremely low interest rates and likely prevented the recession from turning into a depression even as they created huge and ever-increasing debt levels.

- Drastic, downward revisions -

The damage is nonetheless stunning, and more widespread than any downturn in recent decades. The recession in many major economies will be more than double that suffered during the global financial crisis in 2009, which came as major developing economies like China, India and Brazil were booming.

China will eke out growth of one percent this year, the only positive figure on the long list of key economies the IMF tracks.

The United States will shrink eight percent and Germany slightly less, while France, Italy, Spain and Britain will suffer double-digit contractions. Japan makes out a bit better with a drop of just 5.8 percent, according to the forecasts.

Mexico also will see a double-digit decline while Brazil just misses that mark, as does Argentina, which is in the middle of a massive debt crunch on top of its health and economic crises after the country once again defaulted on its foreign obligations.

The IMF pointed to International Labour Organization data estimating more than 300 million jobs were lost in the second quarter of the year.

The "sizeable" flood of government funds to support workers and businesses "have forestalled worse near-term losses," but the IMF urged countries to avoid a situation where aid is "prematurely withdrawn or improperly targeted" since that could worsen the economic damage.

"A more prolonged decline in activity could lead to further scarring, including from wider firm closures, as surviving firms hesitate to hire jobseekers after extended unemployment," the fund warned.

With transport and manufacturing shut down for weeks, the IMF projects global trade volume will collapse by just under 12 percent -- and advanced economies will see an even more dramatic drop.

The IMF also warned of dangers posed by eroding relations between and within countries.

"Beyond pandemic-related downside risks, escalating tensions between the US and China on multiple fronts, frayed relationships among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) coalition of oil producers and widespread social unrest pose additional challenges to the global economy," the report said.