Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Above average monsoon rainfall forecast for India

India badly needs good monsoon rains as below-normal rainfall in 2023 depleted reservoir levels and hit food production

Above average monsoon rainfall forecast for India

INDIA said on Monday it is likely to receive above-average monsoon rainfall in 2024, in a potential boost for the country which depends heavily on the summer rains for its farm output.

The lifeblood of India's economy delivers nearly 70 per cent of the rain needed to water crops and recharge reservoirs and aquifers, with nearly half of its farmland, without any irrigation, depending on the June-September rains to grow several crops.


A spell of good rains could lift farm and wider economic growth, helping to bring down food price inflation, which has remained above the central bank's comfort level in recent months and prompted it to resist cutting lending rates.

The monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1 and retreats in mid-September, is expected to total 106 per cent of the long-term average this year, said M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

India badly needs good monsoon rains as below-normal rainfall in 2023 depleted reservoir levels and hit food production. The government responded by imposing curbs on exports of sugar, rice, onions, and wheat.

Resuming exports depends on how quickly production recovers in 2024, which is not possible without good monsoon rainfall.

"The forecast based on both dynamical and statistical models suggest that quantitatively the monsoon seasonal rainfall during June to September is likely to be 106 per cent of the long period average," Ravichandran said during a news conference.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines average or normal rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.

IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said El Nino was weakening and it would enter a neutral stage by the time the monsoon sets in. La Niña, which increases rainfall in India, would then set in by August, he added.

Data from the 1951-2023 period shows India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on all the nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, Mohapatra said.

El Nino conditions - periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean - are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. La Nina conditions - the antithesis of El Nino - are the dominant factor in the likelihood of "above-normal" rainfall during the monsoon season, D S Pai, a senior scientist at the IMD, told PTI.

The IMD's first stage forecast indicates that the monsoon will be above normal, and this is positive for the food inflation outlook provided the distribution is even, IDFC First Bank economist Gaura Sengupta said.

"For fiscal year 2024/25, we expect headline inflation to average at 4.5 per cent versus 5.4 per cent (last year), supported by easing in food inflation pressures and core inflation remaining contained," Sengupta said.

India imposed export curbs on rice and other commodities just before the election to address rising prices caused by below-normal rainfall.

However, with surplus rainfall, production could improve, allowing New Delhi to ease these export curbs, particularly those on rice shipments, said a New-Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house. (Agencies)

More For You

Former police officer arrested in Rotherham investigation

Investigators believe the earlier offences happened between 1995 and 2002 (Photo for representation: iStock)

Former police officer arrested in Rotherham investigation

A FORMER police officer has been arrested in connection with the ongoing investigation into child sexual abuse in Rotherham, authorities revealed on Tuesday (1).

The former constable, who is in his 50s, was taken into custody on Monday (31). He is suspected of raping a teenage girl in the South Yorkshire town in 2004, according to officials.

Keep ReadingShow less
Modi Xi

Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping during their meeting in October 2024.

75 years of India-China relations: Modi, Xi call for stronger ties

INDIAN prime minister Narendra Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping exchanged messages on Tuesday to mark the 75th anniversary of India-China diplomatic relations.

Modi stated that the development of bilateral ties contributes to global stability and a multipolar world, while Xi called for a "dragon-elephant tango" to strengthen cooperation between the two countries, China's state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

Keep ReadingShow less
Sri Lanka forms committee to address UK sanctions
Anura Kumara Dissanayake

Sri Lanka forms committee to address UK sanctions

THE Sri Lanka government on Wednesday (2) formed a committee to recommend measures regarding the UK's decision to impose sanctions on three former military commanders who led the campaign that crushed the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009.

Health minister Nalinda Jayatissa told reporters that foreign minister Vijitha Herath, justice minister Harshana Nanayakkara and deputy minister of defence Aruna Jayasekara would comprise the committee that would consult experts for the purpose.

Keep ReadingShow less
Gujarat-blast-ANI

The blast caused the factory’s concrete roof to collapse, scattering debris and body parts across the area, officials confirmed. (Photo: ANI)

ANI

Death toll rises to 21 in Gujarat firework factory explosion

AN EXPLOSION at an illegal firecracker factory in Gujarat's Deesa town killed 21 people and injured several others on Tuesday, officials said.

The blast caused the factory’s concrete roof to collapse, scattering debris and body parts across the area, officials confirmed.

Keep ReadingShow less
Child benefit payments set to rise for UK families

Child benefit, normally paid every four weeks directly into bank accounts, has undergone significant changes in recent months (Photo: Getty Images)

Child benefit payments set to rise for UK families

MILLIONS of British families are set to receive a financial boost as child benefit payments increase from April 7, according to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC).

From next week, parents will receive £26.05 per week for the eldest or only child, amounting to £1,354.60 annually - up from the current rate of £25.60. For each additional child, payments will rise to £17.25 weekly, totalling £897 per year - an increase from the present £16.95 rate. This represents a 1.7 per cent increase across all payment categories.

Keep ReadingShow less