AN IMF delegation was in Sri Lanka Monday (14) for talks on the island's worsening economic crisis, with the public suffering through months of food, fuel and medicine shortages.
A lack of foreign currency has left traders unable to pay for vital imports in what authorities concede is the south Asian nation's worst financial crisis since independence from Britain in 1948.
Long queues outside gas stations and rolling blackouts have become the norm, while record inflation has caused serious hardship among the island's 22 million people by repeatedly pushing up the cost of groceries, transport and pharmaceuticals.
A senior staffer from the International Monetary Fund "will hold talks" with president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother, finance minister Basil Rajapaksa, a spokesman for the leader said.
Sri Lanka's government is divided on seeking a bailout, but the international lender said it was "ready to discuss options if requested".
The IMF warned earlier this month that the country's $51 billion (£39.14 bn) foreign debt was "unsustainable", and called for a currency devaluation and higher taxes to revive its almost bankrupt economy.
Sri Lanka last week allowed the rupee to float, a move that saw the currency nosedive 25 per cent against the dollar and triggered a fresh wave of price increases.
Fuel costs have risen by nearly 80 per cent since early February while food prices rose by a quarter according to January figures.
The coronavirus pandemic hammered the south Asian island's tourism sector - a key foreign exchange earner.
Sri Lanka needs nearly $7 bn (£5.37 bn) to service its foreign debt this year, but the country's external reserves at the end of January were just over $2 bn (£1.53 bn) - enough to finance one month of imports.
International ratings agencies have downgraded Sri Lanka over expectations it may not be able to repay its borrowings, though the government insists it will.
(AFP)
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India's GDP growth projected to fall to 6.4 per cent in FY25
Jan 08, 2025
INDIA's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to decline to 6.4 per cent in the financial year 2024-25, marking its lowest rate in four years, according to government data released on Tuesday. The slowdown is attributed to weaker performance in the manufacturing and services sectors.
The growth rate of 6.4 per cent, estimated by the national statistics office (NSO), is the lowest since the contraction of 5.8 per cent recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21. GDP growth was 9.7 per cent in 2021-22, 7 per cent in 2022-23, and 8.2 per cent in 2023-24.
The NSO's first advance estimates are slightly below the Reserve Bank of India's December 2024 projection of 6.6 per cent and the finance ministry's earlier expectation of 6.5-7 per cent. These estimates will guide the preparation of the Union Budget, which India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present on February 1.
India's economic growth slowed to 5.4 per cent in the July-September quarter of FY25, down from 6.7 per cent in the April-June quarter. Manufacturing sector growth is expected to slow to 5.3 per cent in FY25, compared to 9.9 per cent in FY24.
The services sector, which includes trade, hotels, transport, and communication, is projected to grow by 5.8 per cent, compared to 6.4 per cent in the previous fiscal.
In contrast, the agricultural sector is estimated to grow by 3.8 per cent in FY25, up from 1.4 per cent in FY24. "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4 per cent in FY25, compared to 8.2 per cent in FY24," the NSO said.
Nominal GDP is expected to grow by 9.7 per cent in FY25, slightly higher than 9.6 per cent in FY24, reaching £3.06 trillion. This is up from £2.78 trillion in FY24.
The size of the economy is projected to reach £3.1 trillion in FY25 based on current exchange rates.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said that while the NSO’s projections for the second half of FY25 appear reasonable, some sectors may show higher growth. "Benefitting from an anticipated capex push in the upcoming budget, we project GDP growth at 6.5 per cent in FY26," she said.
Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, observed that reduced government capital expenditure in the second quarter may not be offset in the latter half of the fiscal year. "Urban areas face high inflation and slowing credit growth, with retail credit growth moderating," he said.
The NSO also reported that nominal gross value added (GVA) is estimated at £2.76 trillion in FY25, up 9.3 per cent from £2.52 trillion in FY24.
Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to grow by 7.3 per cent in FY25, compared to 4 per cent in FY24, while government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent, compared to 2.5 per cent in the previous fiscal.
Per capita income, at current prices, is estimated to increase by 8.7 per cent, reaching £1,887 in FY25, compared to £1,738 in FY24.
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CHANCELLOR Rachel Reeves will lead a group of ministers at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos this month, as the government works to attract global investors and reassure British businesses.
Reeves, who has attended the event for the past two years in her role as shadow chancellor, will meet with key international investors, including sovereign wealth funds and private equity firms from the US, reported the Times. The government is looking to secure financial backing for its plans related to infrastructure and green energy.
In addition to Reeves, Jonathan Reynolds, business secretary, will also attend the event, along with Baroness Gustafsson, the new minister for investment and former chief executive of Darktrace, and Varun Chandra, the prime minister’s special adviser on business and investment.
According to the report, Reeves aims to project optimism and highlight the UK’s economic potential during the event. She will meet with UK business leaders at the forum to address concerns over last year's increase in employer national insurance.
Reeves said, “I’m going to Davos to tell some of the world’s biggest companies and investors that UK plc is burning bright. I am on a mission to win round the world’s investors. That’s why I’ve already made progress on planning reform to get Britain building, and my plans for pension megafunds will unlock billions of pounds of investment for infrastructure and businesses of the future.”
At last year’s summit, Reeves met with American tech entrepreneurs and European investors, as well as attending various networking events organised by firms like Andreessen Horowitz and JP Morgan.
This year’s delegation is expected to include several prominent figures, including former prime minister Baroness May and former chancellor George Osborne, who is now a partner at Robey Warshaw, a City advisory firm.
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Jan 07, 2025
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The announcement followed a meeting between Microsoft chairman and CEO Satya Nadella and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi on Monday (6), during which they discussed the company’s plans for growth, innovation, and upskilling in the country.
Thrilled to announce our new investments in AI infrastructure and skilling in India to help accelerate the country’s AI transformation. https://t.co/e2y7hc6Sko
— Satya Nadella (@satyanadella) January 7, 2025
Modi had expressed his satisfaction with Microsoft’s investment plans and its focus on technology and innovation.
In a post on X, he said, “It was indeed a delight to meet you, Satya Nadella! Glad to know about Microsoft’s ambitious expansion and investment plans in India. It was also wonderful discussing various aspects of tech, innovation, and AI in our meeting.”
It was indeed a delight to meet you, @satyanadella! Glad to know about Microsoft's ambitious expansion and investment plans in India. It was also wonderful discussing various aspects of tech, innovation and AI in our meeting. https://t.co/ArK8DJYBhK
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) January 6, 2025
Nadella, who is leading Microsoft’s push to deepen its footprint in India, thanked PM Modi for his leadership. He said the company was committed to making India “AI-first” and ensuring that its initiatives benefit every citizen.
“Excited to build on our commitment to making India AI-first and work together on our continued expansion in the country to ensure every Indian benefits from this AI platform shift,” Nadella stated.
The new investment will focus on scaling Azure cloud and AI capabilities in India, which is already home to over 20,000 Microsoft employees across 10 cities.
It also includes plans to train 10 million people in AI by 2030, building on the 2.4m individuals Microsoft upskilled last year.
This outlay is in addition to Microsoft’s previously announced £64 bn global investment in AI-enabled data centres, set for fiscal 2025.
India has emerged as a critical market for global tech giants, with its growing talent pool and relatively low operational costs.
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Jan 05, 2025
INDIA's foreign exchange reserves have dropped for the fourth consecutive week, reaching an eight-month low of £516.26 billion as of December 27, according to data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released on Friday.
The reserves fell by £3.31 bn during the reported week, following a cumulative decline of £11.05 bn over the preceding three weeks.
Changes in the foreign currency assets component of the reserves are influenced by the central bank's interventions in the forex market and fluctuations in the value of foreign assets held.
The RBI has been intervening in the forex market to manage volatility in the rupee. The domestic currency weakened to an all-time low of 85.8075 against the dollar last week, marking a 0.3 per cent decline over the period.
Concerns about slowing economic growth in India and a widening trade deficit have added pressure on the rupee.
These factors, combined with the dollar’s broad strength amid a hawkish US Federal Reserve stance and expectations around US president-elect Donald Trump's policies, have contributed to the decline.
The RBI is believed to have sold dollars through state-run banks to limit rupee weakness and prevent a sharp depreciation.
On Friday, the rupee settled at 85.77, reflecting a 0.2 per cent fall for the week and its ninth consecutive weekly loss.
India’s forex reserves also include the country’s reserve tranche position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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Battery electric vehicles made up 19.6 per cent of new cars sold last year, said the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which was below the government's 22-per cent target for carmakers.
The SMMT reported a "record annual volume" of 382,000 battery electric vehicles sold last year.
The automobile trade body had already warned in October that carmakers were at risk of missing government targets, with manufacturers facing government penalties of £15,000 ($18,625) per polluting vehicle sold above the limits.
However, the government has since assured that it expects all manufacturers to avoid the penalties in 2024 by taking advantage of flexibility mechanisms that will take into account, among other things, emissions reductions across the whole fleet.
The group's chief executive, Mike Hawes, said that while the market share of electric vehicles grew, this came at a "huge cost" to the industry.
He referred to the "billions invested in new models" supplemented by "unsustainable" incentives provided by the industry.
Hawes urged the government to review the mandate and to do more to stimulate private demand, including improving charging infrastructure.
The SMMT also warned that reaching the thresholds in 2025 will be "even more intense" with the mandates pushed up to 28 percent of cars sold.
There are also concerns over the Labour government's pledge to bring forward the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles to 2030, after the previous Conservative government pushed it back to 2035.
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(AFP)
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