- Friday, July 05, 2024
Other MRP analyses have shown smaller margins of victory for Labour, but none have indicated a different overall outcome.
By: Vivek Mishra
Labour Party is expected to gain a record number of seats in Thursday’s national election, according to a forecast by polling company Survation.
Survation’s central scenario shows Keir Starmer’s Labour winning 484 of the 650 seats in parliament, surpassing the 418 seats won by Tony Blair in 1997, and marking the highest number in its history.
The Conservatives, who have governed for the past 14 years, are predicted to win 64 seats, the fewest since the party’s founding in 1834.
The right-wing Reform UK party is projected to win seven seats.
Survation’s analysis used the Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) technique, estimating public opinion at a local level from large national samples.
Pollsters describe it as a model using polling data, rather than a poll itself.
Other MRP analyses have shown smaller margins of victory for Labour, but none have indicated a different overall outcome.
Earlier, a regular poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, measuring vote share nationwide, showed a slight narrowing in Labour’s lead but still indicated a comfortable victory for the party.
(Reuters)
