As the volatile Westminster mood shifts daily, predictions are perilous.
But the bookmakers odds capture the fragility of the prime minister’s position, giving Boris Johnson a one in three chance of remaining in office to the end of this year, and only a one in five chance of fighting a general election as leader.
Through the pandemic, this government has enjoyed something very powerful in politics: the benefit of the doubt.
The public felt that an unprecedented crisis made some mistakes inevitable, but seeing those who made the rules break them has been harder to forgive. Johnson’s approval ratings have dipped below the level from which any previous prime minister has bounced back to win a General Election. If he does not recover, the question for Conservative MPs may become less “if” but “when” to make a change.
If Britain gets a new prime minister this year, Rishi Sunak starts as the favourite So is Sunak ready to be prime minister and are the Conservative Party and the country ready for Rishi?
Being the frontrunner can be perilous, but Sunak has a strong hand. His frontrunner status will attract MPs hoping to back a winner, so his is likely to be one of the two names put to the party membership in the event of a leadership contest.
Though Sunak has sat around the Cabinet table for fewer than three years, being the pandemic chancellor means the public can see him in the top job. He has a much higher profile than John Major did in 1990. Other potential candidates - including foreign secretary Liz Truss - are better known by the party than the public. Truss’s popularity with party members comes from becoming the most vocal enthusiast for Brexit, despite voting Remain in 2016. Sunak performs best with Conservatives who voted Remain, but will be able to remind his party that he was pro-Brexit before the result came in.
Ready for the tob job? Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
Sunak would be Britain’s first British Asian Prime Minister – and the first ethnic minority prime minister of modern times (though Benjamin Disraeli was the 19th century pioneer). That historic fact would resonate internationally. But political and media scrutiny of his prospects does not focus primarily on this. Sunak’s main headache is the economy, not his ethnicity. His approval rating has been above that of the government – with the furlough scheme among its most popular policies – but tax rises, energy bills and rising inflation will test that.
Sunak’s British Indian heritage is less of a factor than Margaret Thatcher’s gender was in 1975, when the unfamiliarity of a female leader proved a surmountable challenge. Given the party-gate shenanigans that have so damaged No10, Sunak being a teetotal Hindu may be seen as a positive advantage.
The only credible answer to the question “is Britain ready for a non-white Prime Minister” in 2022 is “Yes, obviously”. Ironically, it tends to be the liberal-minded who doubt this more. This is a phenomenon of “imputed prejudice”. Those who would be absolutely fine with an ethnic minority prime minister fear a backlash effect by others - the general public, ‘Red Wall’ swing voters, or Conservative party members. There is next to no evidence for this fear. Conservative party members are rarely the most metropolitan or “woke” section of society, but YouGov’s polling on perceptions of potential candidates – where Sunak has the broadest appeal, while Michael Gove and Priti Patel struggle most – show that ethnicity is neither decisive nor significant.
Yet it is only during this last decade that ethnic diversity has become a “new normal” across British political parties. There were no Asian or Black Tory MPs at all when this century began. The Conservatives had elected their first Asian MP in 1895, but did not elect a second until 1992, or a third until 2005. So the Sunak generation undoubtedly has new opportunities to reach the top. That does not mean that the party has eradicated racism. The Cabinet Office is holding an inquiry into the testimony of Nus Ghani MP that the reasons she was given for her sacking were discriminatory. Casual prejudices against Muslims, in the party as in wider society, are more broadly held than against other ethnic or faith minorities. Leadership candidates also benefit from a version of the ‘but I don’t mean you’ syndrome, where contact or familiarity defuses suspicion of a broader group of nameless people.
In a leadership contest, the party will debate tax and spend, the green agenda and the economy, Brexit and immigration. As others discuss the meaning of his historic candidacy, Sunak will probably stick to a meritocratic message - that he asks to be judged on whether he is the best candidate for the job.
MPs and party members will focus most on one simple question – ‘who can win the next election?’ If they think Sunak looks like the best answer, the party will be ready for the Rishi era to begin.
Sunder Katwala is the director of British Future thinktank
Diwali is a time to celebrate the light that shines within our communities — the light of kindness, service and hope. As families and communities across my constituency in Brent and around the world come together to celebrate this special festival, I want to send my warmest wishes to everyone marking Diwali.
The Festival of Lights reminds us of the triumph of light over darkness, good over evil and knowledge over ignorance; values that resonate far beyond any one faith. It is a celebration of renewal, hope and unity. Those are qualities our community in Brent embodies every day and ones the world needs to draw on in these difficult times.
Here in Brent, we are home to some of the UK’s most vibrant record breaking and award winning Hindu temples, mandirs and cultural centres. I am so proud to represent Brent East, which includes, BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir in Neasden, Shree Swaminarayan Mandir Kingsbury and Shree Swaminarayan Temple Willesden.
These are places not only of worship, but where people of all backgrounds can come together in the spirit of friendship and shared celebration.
Each temple contributes immensely to our borough’s social fabric. The temples regularly host blood donation sessions open to the public. All are involved in some way in uplifting our community through outreach work including food banks and charity work.
This list is by no means exhaustive, and I want to sincerely thank all the temples across my constituency for the incredible work they do to support our community throughout the year. Their compassion and commitment to service are a shining example of Diwali’s true message.
Brent’s greatest strength lies in its diversity. It is one of the most diverse constituencies in the country, with 150 languages spoken throughout the borough. Many languages but one voice. Diwali reminds us how much we gain from coming together and learning from one another’s traditions and celebrations. Multiculturalism means there are different cultures in one wonderful melting pot that makes us uniquely British.
I take great pride in seeing the growth and contribution of all our diverse communities, including those who have made Britain their home and helped shape its modern identity. The success of our Hindu community in Brent, London and across the country is a powerful reflection of that shared journey.
Together, we show that when people from different backgrounds come together in mutual respect and celebration, we all grow stronger as a nation.
It has been a privilege to join local Diwali events over the years — from the fireworks displays to the beautiful Annakoot offerings and the warm gatherings at our temples.
I have always believed that in Brent our unity is our strength, that’s why my office mantra is: “Our community is our strength.” At a time when the world can often feel unstable, Diwali reminds us of the enduring power of compassion, generosity and community spirit – values that continue to guide and inspire us all.
The Hindu community is a cherished part of our Brent family. To everyone celebrating in Brent and beyond — Happy Diwali and Naya Saal Mubarak.
May this festival bring peace, happiness and prosperity to you and your loved ones.
(The author is a British Labour Party politician who is member of parliament for Brent East.)
By clicking the 'Subscribe’, you agree to receive our newsletter, marketing communications and industry
partners/sponsors sharing promotional product information via email and print communication from Garavi Gujarat
Publications Ltd and subsidiaries. You have the right to withdraw your consent at any time by clicking the
unsubscribe link in our emails. We will use your email address to personalize our communications and send you
relevant offers. Your data will be stored up to 30 days after unsubscribing.
Contact us at data@amg.biz to see how we manage and store your data.
Sunder Katwala: Is the UK ready for Rishi Sunak?