Skip to content
Search

Latest Stories

Small boats policy ‘likely to cost Tories election victory’

Data from Ipsos revealed that if a general election was to be held tomorrow, 45 per cent of the UK public would chose Labour, while the Tories would secure 28 per cent of the vote

Small boats policy ‘likely to cost Tories election victory’

THE Conservative party’s controversial immigration policy could ultimately be the reason they lose power at the next general election, a group of leading academics have predicted.

Plans to stop thousands of migrants landing on British shores in small boats were last month approved by the House of Lords. The bill – which will mean anyone arriving by boat illegally will be refused the right to apply for asylum in the UK – will now become law following the formality of royal assent.


LEAD Election INSET 1 Professor Rob Ford Rob Ford

The legislation includes measures to transfer all irregular arrivals to “safe” third countries such as Rwanda to provide a deterrent against illegal migration.

However, despite his strong stance on immigration, prime minister Rishi Sunak trails his Labour rival, Sir Keir Starmer, in voting intention polls.

Data from Ipsos revealed that if a general election was to be held tomorrow, 45 per cent of the UK public would chose Labour, while the Tories would secure 28 per cent of the vote.

“If you look at 2019 Conservative voters, over the past year, they’ve become very concerned about immigration,” said Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester.

“So, if your strategy as Rishi Sunak is ‘let’s put a firm floor on the Conservatives vote, let’s make sure it doesn’t really collapse’, then a really hardline stance on immigration, in theory, make sense in terms of ticking those boxes.”

He was speaking in a panel discussion last Wednesday (26) on the July by-elections results, hosted by the UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) group.

Ford added, “However, this is basically giving up on the idea of competing for many of the swing voters that you’re losing to Labour, because very few of them are now saying immigration is a top issue.

“Also, they don’t think the Conservative policies are any good on immigration.

“Even when they are pro-immigration control or pro-stop the boats, they think the policies designed to do those things will be expensive failures.

“You’re essentially flagging up something either people don’t care about – and when it comes to swing voters, they think the policies are bad – so I don’t really think it will work with them.”

Stopping small boats was one of Sunak’s five key pledges he unveiled at the beginning of the year.

More than 45,000 migrants arrived on the shores of southeast England on small boats in 2022 – a 60-per cent annual increase on a route used by more people every year since 2018.

Sophie Stowers, a researcher at UKICE, said stopping the small boats was one aspect of immigration that could be a “vote winner”. But with the general election due next year, she felt there wasn’t enough time for the Tories to make significant steps to ad[1]dress the issue.

LEAD Election INSET 2 Professor Paula Surridge Paula Surridge

“We’ve seen immigration, which dropped out of the top 10 priority issues for voters, slowly creep back in to third or fourth place on the YouGov tracker, which is the highest it’s been for a long time,” said Stowers.

“Making inroads with voters who find this a priority is dependent on taking action. They (Tories) have got a year and-ahalf until the election and it’s very unlikely any sort of tangible difference is going to be made.

“You are sort of setting a rock on your own back if you actually stand on a podium and put this as one of your five pledges – but can’t then actually do anything to tackle that issue. You’re very much just reinforcing the public’s attitude to successive governments on this issue, which is just one of incompetence.”

Research shows that economic instability is a key issue that long-term Tory voters are most worried about, said Paula Surridge, professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol.

Millions of households across Britain are under sustained pressure from soaring prices for groceries, energy and other basic essentials, as well as an increase in rent and mortgage costs. The ONS [Office for National Statistics]said one in 20 households had run out of food in the past and had not been able to afford to buy more. Surridge said, “The biggest group at the moment among the Conservatives are not the Conservatives to Labour switches. They’re not the Conservative to Reform UK switches. They’re the Conservatives who don’t know what they’re going to do next time, who make up almost a quarter of 2019 Conservative voters.

LEAD Election INSET 3 Sophie Stowers Sophie Stowers

“I’d say the core strategy for either side (Labour and Tory) at the moment is to find out who those voters are and what they want. I tried to do that with some of the election study data and the most important issue for 70 per cent of this group is the economy.

“On economic issues and values, they are well to the left, those staying with the Conservative party. You can move around to the other dimension and try and have a culture war and bring immigration into play, but when people’s concerns are economic, and they’re not aligned with you on economic values, it’s not going to help you because you’re not talking to people about the things they really care about and that are really important to their lives at the moment.”

Ford predicted a general election defeat would signal the end of Sunak as not only prime minister, but also as the leader of the Tory party.

“It’s hard to imagine that he would stay on if it’s a heavy defeat,” said Ford.

“If there’s a leadership contest, when you look at how the MPs behaved in the last leadership contest, it’s very likely we get one candidate, maybe two candidates on the right of the party.

“If you look at the kinds of people manoeuvring themselves for that contest, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and so on, it would be consistent with that.”

More For You

ve-day-getty

VE Day 80 street parties, picnics and community get togethers are being encouraged to take place across the country as part of the Great British Food Festival. (Photo: Getty Images)

Public invited to attend VE Day 80 procession and flypast

THE 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe (VE) Day will be marked with a military procession in London on May 5.

The event will include over 1,300 members of the Armed Forces, youth groups, and uniformed services marching from Parliament Square to Buckingham Palace.

Keep ReadingShow less
Knife crimes

Knife-enabled crimes include cases where a blade or sharp instrument was used to injure or threaten, including where the weapon was not actually seen.

Getty Images/iStockphoto

Knife crime in London accounts for a third of national total: ONS

KNIFE-RELATED crime in London made up almost a third of all such offences recorded in England and Wales in 2024, with the Metropolitan Police logging 16,789 incidents, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday.

This amounts to one offence every 30 minutes in the capital and represents 31 per cent of the 54,587 knife-enabled crimes reported across England and Wales last year. The total number marks a two per cent rise from 53,413 offences in 2023.

Keep ReadingShow less
Starmer and Modi

Starmer and Modi shake hands during a bilateral meeting in the sidelines of the G20 summit at the Museum of Modern Art in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Brazil, on November 18, 2024.

Getty Images

Starmer calls Modi over Kashmir attack; expresses condolences

PRIME MINISER Keir Starmer spoke to Indian prime minister Narendra Modi on Friday morning following the deadly attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam region that killed 26 people on Tuesday.

According to a readout from 10 Downing Street, Starmer said he was horrified by the devastating terrorist attack and expressed deep condolences on behalf of the British people to those affected, their loved ones, and the people of India. The two leaders agreed to stay in touch.

Keep ReadingShow less
 Post Office Horizon

A Post Office van parked outside the venue for the Post Office Horizon IT inquiry at Aldwych House on January 11, 2024 in London, England. (Photo: Getty Images)

Getty Images

Post Office spent £600m to keep Horizon despite plans to replace it: Report

THE POST OFFICE has spent more than £600 million of public funds to continue using the Horizon IT system, according to a news report.

Despite deciding over a decade ago to move away from the software, the original 1999 contract with Fujitsu prevented the Post Office from doing so, as it did not own the core software code, a BBC investigation shows.

Keep ReadingShow less
Pahalgam attack: Prayer meet held at Indian mission in London

The prayer meet was led by Indian High Commissioner to the UK Vikram Doraiswami

Pahalgam attack: Prayer meet held at Indian mission in London

Mahesh Liloriya

A PRAYER meet was held at the Gandhi Hall in the High Commission of India in London on Thursday (24) to pay respects to the victims of the Pahalgam terrorist attack.

Chants of ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai’ rang out at the event which was led by Indian High Commissioner to the UK Vikram Doraiswami.

Keep ReadingShow less