THE SRI LANKAN rupee fell sharply against the dollar on Thursday (10), after the country's central bank ordered a 15 per cent depreciation in a bid to stave off a looming economic collapse sparked by a shortage of foreign currency.
The country's worst economic crisis since independence has led to fuel and electricity rationing across the south Asian nation of 22 million, crippling public transport and causing long queues for food and medicine.
The coronavirus pandemic battered the island's tourism sector - a key foreign currency earner - sparking fears the country may not be able to repay its $51 billion (£38.78 bn) foreign debt.
Traders said the rupee on Thursday (10) sank 11.53 per cent against the US dollar, the island's main foreign trading currency, as authorities struggled to raise cash to finance desperately-needed oil imports.
The state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) has asked the government to urgently raise the retail price of oil in a bid to save itself from bankruptcy.
This week's depreciation added another $760 million (£577.91m) to service the firm's foreign debt of $3.3 bn (£2.51 bn), official figures showed.
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka on Monday (7) night announced it would allow "greater flexibility" in the exchange rate, which had been pegged at 197 rupees to the dollar since last April.
But it then backtracked, telling commercial banks that it would not intervene to shore up the rupee.
The remarks led to a sharp depreciation when markets opened on Thursday (10), traders said, with exporters expecting a further fall in the currency's value.
The CPC is losing 120 rupees (40p) on every litre of diesel sold at the current government-regulated price, chief Sumith Wijesinghe said.
"If we had the authority to increase (the price), we would have done it already," Wijesinghe told reporters.
The government has said it hopes to soon import $500m (£380.2m) worth of oil under a credit line from India to address the local shortages.
On Wednesday (9), the government tightened restrictions on a wide range of imports - from whisky to kitchen appliances - to save foreign exchange and finance essential imports such as oil, food and medicines.
An import ban was already introduced in March 2020 on big-ticket items such as cars, in an effort to stop the outflow of dollars needed to pay Sri Lanka's debts.
Milk powder, sugar, lentils and wheat, as well as medicine, are in short supply.
The International Monetary Fund last week urged Colombo to devalue its currency and raise taxes, warning the cash-strapped country that its foreign debt was "unsustainable".
(AFP)
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One millionaire leaves UK every 45 minutes, study finds
Jan 19, 2025
A RECORD number of millionaires have left the country since Labour took office, with concerns mounting over the party’s tax policies.
A study by New World Wealth and Henley & Partners revealed that Britain lost a net 10,800 millionaires in 2024, marking a 157 per cent rise from the previous year.
This figure, which excludes incoming millionaires, is second only to China’s outflows globally, The Times reported.
Many of these wealthy individuals relocated to countries such as Italy, Switzerland, and the UAE, with 78 centi-millionaires and 12 billionaires among them.
The exodus accelerated after Labour announced plans to abolish the non-domiciled tax regime.
From April, the reforms will replace the current system with a residence-based framework, extending UK inheritance tax to non-doms’ overseas assets.
The Treasury expects the changes to generate £2.5 billion annually over five years. However, Oxford Economics estimates the reforms could cost the economy nearly £1 bn annually due to reduced tax revenues and the broader impact on the economy.
A survey by Oxford Economics found nearly two-thirds of non-doms or their advisers are considering leaving the UK. On average, each non-dom contributed £800,000 in VAT last year, £890,000 in stamp duty over five years, and invested £118 million in the UK, the newspaper reported.
Foreign Investors for Britain has criticised the government’s policy. David Hawkins, a representative of the group, called it “a monumental act of national self-harm,” citing its potential to deter businesses, jobs, and philanthropy, The Times reported.
Tax experts have reported a surge in inquiries from British entrepreneurs considering relocation since the budget announcement.
Henley & Partners reported a 57 per cent increase in applications for alternative citizenship in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Entrepreneurs like Charlie Mullins and real estate investor Asif Aziz have already moved abroad. Calls for a tiered tax system to attract wealthy investors have been proposed as a compromise.
Treasury officials maintain that the reforms aim to ensure fairness and stability.
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UK to lead European growth in 2025, predicts IMF
Jan 18, 2025
BRITAIN is set to have the fastest growth among major European economies this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, a boost to finance minister Rachel Reeves who is under pressure over a slowdown since her party came to power in July.
The IMF has raised its forecast for British growth for 2025 by 0.1 percentage points to 1.6 per cent, making it the third-strongest among the Group of Seven advanced economies after the US and Canada.
The IMF outlook for British gross domestic product growth in 2026 remained at 1.5 per cent, again the third-fastest in the G7 and unchanged from its October estimate.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the "modest" growth upgrade reflected a net positive impact from Reeves' first budget on Oct. 30 - as greater public investment would outweigh headwinds created by higher taxes - as well as rising household incomes and Bank of England rate cuts.
The BoE was likely to cut rates around once per quarter in 2025, he added.
Responding to the upgrade for 2025, Reeves said she would "go further and faster" to deliver economic growth.
The Bank of England forecast growth of 1.5 per cent in 2025, partly reflecting a short-term boost to the economy from a temporary increase in public spending announced by Reeves on Oct. 30.
Rachel Reeves
Last month, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development also raised its forecast for British economic growth to 1.7 per cent from 1.2 per cent previously.
However, Reeves' spending plans are based on forecasts from the government's Office for Budget Responsibility which pencilled in growth of 2 per cent for 2025 and 1.8 per cent for 2026.
British government 30-year borrowing costs hit their highest since 1998 this week - the biggest losers in a global bond selloff driven by concerns about higher inflation and borrowing under the imminent presidency of Donald Trump.
But British bond prices recovered later in the week after weaker-than-expected British and U.S. inflation data and slower-than-expected GDP growth in November, the first month after Reeves set out her budget plan.
Reeves - whose future has been questioned by opposition lawmakers - doubled down on her budget decisions on Friday (17), saying they had been made in the national interest to put public finances back on "a firm footing".
Britain's economy stagnated in the third quarter of 2024, when the prospect of big tax rises in the Labour government's budget hit companies, and the BoE estimates there was zero growth in the final quarter of 2024 too.
(Reuters)
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Reliance Industries reports 7.38 per cent rise in quarterly profit
Jan 17, 2025
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES reported a 7.38 per cent year-on-year increase in profit for the December quarter on Thursday, driven by growth in its consumer-focused divisions.
The company, led by Mukesh Ambani, remains India’s most valuable by market capitalisation.
While expanding into retail, telecoms, and green energy, Reliance still relies heavily on its oil-to-chemicals business, which had faced recent challenges, leading to three consecutive quarters of profit decline last year.
Breaking this trend, Reliance recorded a net profit of £1.75 billion for the December quarter, slightly surpassing the analyst consensus of £1.73 bn.
Revenue from operations rose 6.97 per cent year-on-year to £22.99 bn, with growth seen across all divisions.
Chairman Mukesh Ambani said in a statement that the petrochemicals business had shown "innate resilience" despite the volatility in global energy markets.
He added that the digital services segment experienced "robust growth" due to subscriber additions and improved customer engagement, while the retail arm benefited from strong festive season demand.
The telecom segment's average revenue per user increased by 11.9 per cent to £1.92, supported by tariff hikes and a better subscriber mix.
Reliance's retail business recorded an 8.8 per cent increase in gross revenue, reaching £8.54 bn, supported by holiday season sales.
Store footfalls grew 5 per cent year-on-year to 296 million during the quarter.
Shares of Reliance Industries closed 1.14 per cent higher in Mumbai ahead of the earnings announcement.
(With inputs from AFP)
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India faces growth challenge as global uncertainty mounts
Jan 17, 2025
AFTER world-beating economic growth last year, India’s policymakers are scrambling to prevent a sharp slowdown as worsening global conditions and declining domestic confidence undo a recent stock market rally.
Last Tuesday (7), Asia’s third-largest economy forecast 6.4 per cent annual growth for the fiscal year ending in March, the slowest in four years and below initial projections, weighed down by weaker investment and manufacturing.
The downgrade follows disappointing economic indicators and a slowdown in corporate earnings in the second half of 2024, which have forced investors to rethink the country’s earlier outperformance and cast doubts over prime minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious economic targets.
The fresh worries are heightening calls for authorities to lift sentiment by loosening monetary settings and slohe pace of fiscal tightening, especially as Donald Trump’s looming second presidency in the US throws more uncertainty over the global trade outlook.
“You have to revive the animal spirit, and you also have to ensure that consumption picks up. It’s not that easy,” Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said, adding India could expand its fiscal balance sheet or cut interest rates.
Such calls come amid a flurry of meetings by Indian policymakers with businesses growing increasingly worried about faltering demand.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman held a series of meetings in December with industry and economists, customary ahead of India’s annual budget, which is due on February 1.
Some measures proposed in those talks to boost growth include putting more money into the hands of consumers and cutting taxes and tariffs, according to demands by trade and industry associations.
The worries about India’s economy knocked 12 per cent off the benchmark Nifty 50 index from late September to November. It clawed back those losses to end 2024 up 8.7 per cent, a decent gain but well off the previous year’s 20 per cent surge.
As confidence wanes, the political urge to stimulate growth appears to be broadening.
India’s monthly economic report published last month said the central bank’s tight monetary policy was partly responsible for the hit to demand.
Modi has made some high-profile changes recently that are expected to lift economic growth as a priority over price stability.
In a surprise move in December, Modi appointed Sanjay Malhotra as the new central bank governor, replacing Shaktikanta Das, a trusted bureaucrat who was widely expected to get another one to two-year term as chief having completed six years at the helm.
The appointment of Malhotra, who recently said the central bank would strive to support a higher growth path, came immediately after data showed September quarter growth slowed much more than expected to 5.4 per cent.
Donald Trump
During the pandemic, Modi sought to keep the economy growing by raising infrastructure spending and limiting wasteful expenditure to keep government finances in good shape.
That lifted headline GDP growth, but has not supported wages or helped consumption sustain an annual expansion of more than seven per cent over the past three years.
While India’s economy may still outperform globally, the question is whether it can maintain 6.5 per cent-7.5 per cent growth or slow to five per cent-six per cent, said Sanjay Kathuria, visiting senior fellow at Centre for Social and Economic Progress.
Arora said the country currently is in a “bit of a limbo” where individuals are not spending. She expects this to continue if employment does not improve and wage growth remains weak.
Reuters reported last month the government plans to cut taxes for some individuals and is preparing to offer tariff cuts on some farm and industrial goods, mainly imported from the US, to clinch a trade deal with Trump.
Economists said the government will have to slow some of its fiscal tightening to support growth with the success of such measures dependent on the extent of the cuts.
With regards to trade, analysts said India needs a credible plan to fight Trump’s tariff wars.
If China remains the main target of Trump’s tariffs, that could present an opportunity for India to boost its trade profile, although it would also need to let the rupee fall further to make its exports more competitive, economists said.
The rupee has hit multiple lows in the past few weeks and 2024 was its seventh consecutive year of decline, mostly due to a surging dollar. Last Wednesday (8), it hit a fresh all-time low.
India needs to “seriously implement tariff rationalisation to help embed itself more deeply into global value chains,” Kathuria, also an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, said.
This could include tariff cuts aimed at pre-emptively heading off punitive levies from a Trump White House.
“India should announce some proactive measures for US suo-moto to bring concessions for the US, rather than waiting for the new administration to announce their steps,” said Sachin Chaturvedi, head of the New Delhi-based Research and Information System for Developing Countries. (Reuters)
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GDP rises just 0.1 per cent in November following Reeves’ budget
Jan 16, 2025
THE ECONOMY grew by 0.1 per cent in November, marking a slight recovery after contractions in September and October, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This modest increase followed chancellor Rachel Reeves’ October budget, which introduced significant tax hikes for businesses. However, the growth was weaker than the 0.2 per cent rise expected by economists.
Reeves stated she is “determined to go further and faster to kick-start economic growth” and plans to meet regulators to discuss how they can support the government’s efforts to accelerate the economy.
Prime minister Keir Starmer has also pledged to achieve the fastest per capita GDP growth among the Group of Seven advanced economies.
Despite the slight growth, challenges remain. Ben Jones, lead economist at the Confederation of British Industry, noted a cautious mood among businesses following the budget.
“Many firms are entering 2025 with a focus on reducing operational expenditure, which is likely to weigh on pay, hiring and investment in the months ahead,” he said.
Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the economy continues to face pressure from recent tax increases and global uncertainty, particularly after Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory.
However, Wood expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates in February, adding, “We think the outlook remains brighter than the late 2024 data suggest, and talk of recessionary risk is wide of the mark.”
The ONS reported that growth in the services sector, driven by wholesaling, pubs, restaurants, and IT companies, supported November’s economic expansion.
However, manufacturing and oil and gas sectors experienced declines. Production output fell by 0.4 per cent, while construction rebounded by the same margin.
The economy showed zero growth in the third quarter of 2024, with uncertainty over the budget affecting businesses.
The Bank of England expects the economy to have flat-lined in the final quarter of the year. Some analysts have warned the economy may have contracted overall in that period.
Government borrowing costs recently surged due to concerns about slow economic growth but fell sharply after lower inflation data in the UK and the US suggested that interest rate cuts could happen sooner.
Sterling fell slightly against the US dollar before recovering some losses, and UK government bond yields steadied following a significant drop.
Investment strategist Lindsay James from Quilter Investors highlighted that the full impact of the budget is still to come, with the rise in social security contributions starting in April. She also pointed to potential global risks, saying, “Trump’s inauguration is nearing, and the true effects of his policies will start to be felt later in the year.”
Looking ahead to 2025, some analysts caution that tighter financial conditions and higher taxes could negatively affect business investment. Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, warned that a “gloomy business mood on the back of higher taxes and a potential escalation in trade conflicts could set back business investment.”
Despite these challenges, Reeves reaffirmed her commitment to driving economic growth. “That means generating investment, driving reform and a relentless commitment to root out waste in public spending,” she said. “I will fight every day to deliver that growth and put more money into working people's pockets.”
Compared to the previous year, the UK’s economic output in November was 1.0 per cent higher, falling short of economists’ forecasts of 1.3 per cent growth.
(With inputs from agencies)
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