THE TORIES would be reduced to just 66 seats, from its current tally of 365, while Labour would bag a whopping 476 seats and the Lib Dems 59, the first MRP poll of the campaign suggests.
A large-scale MRP polling by Electoral Calculus surveyed 10,000 people taking tactical voting into account, according to media reports.
This would be the worst-ever performance for the Conservatives and 18 cabinet members could lose their seats.
They include Claire Coutinho, Oliver Dowden, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Johnny Mercer and Penny Mordaunt.
It suggests that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will hold on to his Richmond seat in North Yorkshire “by a whisker” of three per cent over Labour.
Over 100 Conservative MPs, including former prime minister Theresa May, have decided to stand down for the July 4 poll.
The survey expects Labour to garner 46 per cent votes, followed by the Tories (19 per cent), Reform UK (12 per cent), and the Lib Dems (10 per cent).
Interestingly Reform UK is not expected to win any seat despite a double-digit voting percentage.
For Labour, this landslide win could be bigger that of Tony Blair in 1997, when the party won 419 seats.
For the Conservatives it would be worse than the 165 MPs returned by John Major in 1997.
While the Tories would be the official opposition, they would have less than half of the opposition MPs.
Even without tactical voting factored in, the Tories are predicted to win just 72 seats in the poll to Labour’s 493.
The Scottish National Party would win 22 seats, nearly half their current 43 seats, while Plaid Cymru would get four and the Greens two.
The findings of this poll is likely to further ruffle feathers in the Tory camp.
US president Donald Trump and UK prime minister Keir Starmer announce an agreement between the two countries as they hold a press conference conference at Chequers at the conclusion of a state visit on September 18, 2025 in Aylesbury, England. Leon Neal/Pool via REUTERS
Dr Selva Pankaj 
